A BIG PROBLEM FOR CAP AND TRADE
August 31, 2008
“Cap and trade” is a plan to limit carbon dioxide emissions by selling (or giving) pollution permits (called “allowances”) to big polluters. The total number of “allowances” is limited (the cap). If the polluters can reduce their emissions below their permitted amount, they can sell some of their “allowances” to other polluters (the trade) who can use them to continue polluting instead of reducing. The plan before Congress has one more wrinkle: instead of reducing pollution at home, polluters would be able to earn “credits” by investing in supposedly-less-polluting activities in China or Africa (or anywhere) and thus “earn” the “right” to continue polluting at home because their home emissions are being “offset” by the pollution- reduction projects somewhere else in the world.
Selling these “offsets” is already a big business — for example, people who feel guilty about flying can buy “offsets” or “credits” to (supposedly) make their flight “carbon neutral.” At least that is the theory and the business hype.
So what’s wrong with this idea? Well, let’s look at a fairly simple example: growing green plants to make ethanol (or other “biofuels” like “biodiesel”) to power our transportation systems.
In the U.S., a scientific debate about biofuels has been raging for at least 5 years. In 2003, well-known agricultural researcher David Pimentel at Cornell published a paper showing that growing corn to make ethanol fuel requires more energy than it delivers in the ethanol. In other words, corn ethanol is an energy loser that will make global warming (and dependence on foreign oil) worse, not better, Pimentel concluded.
The following year Tad Patzek, an engineer at the University of California at Berkeley, published a paper showing that growing ethanol from corn was even worse than Pimentel had said it was. Because there is so much petroleum hidden in crops (in the fertilizer, the pesticides, the energy to make and run the tractors, and so on), growing ethanol requires more fossil energy than it returns in the ethanol itself, Patzek found.
Critics said, “OK, maybe corn isn’t the right crop for making ethanol but what about making ethanol from soybeans or sun flowers or from a fast-growing grass like switchgrass?”
In 2005 Patzek and Pimentel argued in a joint paper that growing plants for ethanol required more fossil-fuel energy than the resulting ethanol provided — no matter whether the ethanol was made from corn or wood or soybeans or sunflowers or switchgrass. These five crops were all energy losers as sources of biofuels, Patzek and Pimental concluded.
With that, the critics of biofuels seemed to have won the debate.
Nevertheless, in his state of the union address in January 2006 President Bush hyped the advantages of ethanol from switchgrass. And in 2007 Congress — based on advice from industry experts — passed the Energy Independence and Security Act, requiring the U.S. to produce 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels annually starting no later than 2022, with 15 billion of that required to come from corn ethanol. (It turned out this was a boon worth billions of dollars to corn farmers and to big corn processors like Archer Daniels Midland, which has entered the ethanol business in a big way.)
Then in January 2008 U.S. Department of Agriculture researchers published a paper showing that switchgrass ethanol yields a tremendous energy benefit, compared to the fossil fuels fuels required to grow it. They said they differed with Patzek and Pimental on diesel fuel usage, fertilizer requirements, electricity rates and machinery costs, among other things.
Suddenly the biofuel advocates seemed to have the upper hand.
However, a month later two papers in Science magazine swung the debate the other way again: one paper showed that ethanol from switchgrass increases carbon emissions by 50% compared to gasoline; the other paper showed that clearing land to produce biofuels releases large quantities of carbon dioxide from the soil and that it takes decades or centuries for the debt to be repaid by burning ethanol instead of gasoline. In other words, in the short term — precisely the time when we need to be reducing carbon dioxide emissions — growing biofuels will increase carbon dioxide emissions. Advantage biofuel critics.
But wait — not so fast!
In June and August of this year, two articles were published arguing that biofuels made from algae can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by more than 90% compared to gasoline. Both articles say we could get roughly 5000 gallons (roughly 15 metric tonnes) of fuel per acre per year by growing specially-selected algae in a carbon-dioxide- rich atmosphere in closed containers (closed to keep out wild, unproductive strains of algae and to maintain high levels of CO2). Five thousand gallons per acre is roughly 10 times the yield of corn ethanol and 100 times the yield of soybean ethanol. Advantage biofuel enthusiasts.
But could this make a dent in U.S. petroleum use? The U.S. uses roughly 4 billion (4E9) tonnes of petroleum each year. If we could grow algae to produce 15 tonnes of fuel per acre we would need 4E9/15 = 250 million acres of land, which is more than half the 450 million acres of cropland in the U.S. This is a ballpark calculation with every number rounded. But by any measure, it’s a tremendous amount of land. And it is land that must be dedicated to biofuels, unlike wind turbine or even solar panels on tall stilts, which could allow other land uses like crops or grazing beneath them.
So what is the carbon impact of biofuels? As a writer in Environmental Health Perspectives concluded in June, “The answer depends on a slew of unknowns.”
What can we learn from this?
Calculating the energetics of growing a crop to make fuel seems simple enough — until you get into the details. It turns out the results are dependent upon dozens or hundreds of variables, many of them specific to a particular place — soil type, soil carbon content, soil moisture, rainfall (including rainfall intensity, not just total rainfall), local pest populations, the particular cultivar, till or no-till… and on and on.
Will consultants in Kenya or Brazil (or on Wall Street) be able measure the actual carbon emission “savings” from a project that is planting, say, genetically-engineered Eucalyptus trees on depleted soil in Brazil so that a coal-fired power plant in Ohio can purchase an “offset” and take credit for reducing global emissions overall? If the best-known agricultural scientists in U.S. universites, funded by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, cannot reproduce each other’s results — how will “carbon offset consultants” be able to do it? After all, consultants on both sides of the bargain have an incentive to overestimate the carbon savings gained through each “offset.” Both the buyer and the seller gain if someone fudges the numbers toward the high side and claims a carbon reduction where none exists.
Ordinarily, open scientific debate can resolve issues such as these. But with tens or hundreds of billions of dollars at stake — at a time when the Wall Street banks have lost more than a trillion dollars on bad loans and are desperate to recoup their losses — it is difficult to remain optimistic that mere facts will carry the day. No matter what the facts may be, some consulting scientist can always be found to put his or her name on a “research” paper ghost-written by an investment bank, a chemical company, or an oil giant, the purpose being to keep doubt and confusion alive. It has happened before. Indeed, in the field of global warming science, this is widely known to be business as usual.
In sum, cap and trade with offsets has the potential to become one of the largest business scams ever conceived. Wall Street banks are expecting this to be a new source of enormous profits regardless of whether it alleviates global warming. The enormous profits may indeed materialize. But in the process the “offsets” gimmick could very well (a) cause the entire cap and trade system to lose public confidence and thus fail; (b) increase rather than decrease global warming; and (c) cost us a crucial decade or more while the consultants confuse us into thinking things are going well when, in fact, the planet is being roasted alive.
Netbooks on the loose
August 25, 2008
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Before the Gunfire, Cyberattacks
August 19, 2008
Weeks before bombs started falling on Georgia, a security researcher in suburban Massachusetts was watching an attack against the country in cyberspace.
Jose Nazario of Arbor Networks in Lexington noticed a stream of data directed at Georgian government sites containing the message: “win+love+in+Rusia.”
Other Internet experts in the United States said the attacks against Georgia’s Internet infrastructure began as early as July 20, with coordinated barrages of millions of requests — known as distributed denial of service, or D.D.O.S., attacks — that overloaded and effectively shut down Georgian servers.
Researchers at Shadowserver, a volunteer group that tracks malicious network activity, reported that the Web site of the Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, had been rendered inoperable for 24 hours by multiple D.D.O.S. attacks. They said the command and control server that directed the attack was based in the United States and had come online several weeks before it began the assault.
As it turns out, the July attack may have been a dress rehearsal for an all-out cyberwar once the shooting started between Georgia and Russia. According to Internet technical experts, it was the first time a known cyberattack had coincided with a shooting war.
But it will likely not be the last, said Bill Woodcock, the research director of the Packet Clearing House, a nonprofit organization that tracks Internet traffic. He said cyberattacks are so inexpensive and easy to mount, with few fingerprints, they will almost certainly remain a feature of modern warfare.
“It costs about 4 cents per machine,” Mr. Woodcock said. “You could fund an entire cyberwarfare campaign for the cost of replacing a tank tread, so you would be foolish not to.”
Exactly who was behind the cyberattack is not known. The Georgian government blamed Russia for the attacks, but the Russian government said it was not involved. In the end, Georgia, with a population of just 4.6 million and a relative latecomer to the Internet, saw little effect beyond inaccessibility to many of its government Web sites, which limited the government’s ability to spread its message online and to connect with sympathizers around the world during the fighting with Russia.
It ranks 74th out of 234 nations in terms of Internet addresses, behind Nigeria, Bangladesh, Bolivia and El Salvador, according to Renesys, a Manchester, N.H., firm that provides performance data on the state of Internet. Cyberattacks have far less impact on such a country than they might on a more Internet-dependent nation, like Israel, Estonia or the United States, where vital services like transportation, power and banking are tied to the Internet.
In Georgia, media, communications and transportation companies were also attacked, according to security researchers. Shadowserver saw the attack against Georgia spread to computers throughout the government after Russian troops entered the Georgian province of South Ossetia. The National Bank of Georgia’s Web site was defaced at one point. Images of 20th-century dictators as well as an image of Georgia’s president, Mr. Saakashvili, were placed on the site. “Could this somehow be indirect Russian action? Yes, but considering Russia is past playing nice and uses real bombs, they could have attacked more strategic targets or eliminated the infrastructure kinetically,” said Gadi Evron, an Israeli network security expert. “The nature of what’s going on isn’t clear,” he said.
The phrase “a wilderness of mirrors” usually describes the murky world surrounding opposing intelligence agencies. It also neatly summarizes the array of conflicting facts and accusations encompassing the cyberwar now taking place in tandem with the Russian fighting in Georgia.
In addition to D.D.O.S. attacks that crippled Georgia’s limited Internet infrastructure, researchers said there was evidence of redirection of Internet traffic through Russian telecommunications firms beginning last weekend. The attacks continued on Tuesday, controlled by software programs that were located in hosting centers controlled by a Russian telecommunications firms. A Russian-language Web site, stopgeorgia.ru, also continued to operate and offer software for download used for D.D.O.S. attacks.
Over the weekend a number of American computer security researchers tracking malicious programs known as botnets, which were blasting streams of useless data at Georgian computers, said they saw clear evidence of a shadowy St. Petersburg-based criminal gang known as the Russian Business Network, or R.B.N.
“The attackers are using the same tools and the same attack commands that have been used by the R.B.N. and in some cases the attacks are being launched from computers they are known to control,” said Don Jackson, director of threat intelligence for SecureWorks, a computer security firm based in Atlanta.
He noted that in the run-up to the start of the war over the weekend, computer researchers had watched as botnets were “staged” in preparation for the attack, and then activated shortly before Russian air strikes began on Saturday.
The evidence on R.B.N. and whether it is controlled by, or coordinating with the Russian government remains unclear. The group has been linked to online criminal activities including child pornography, malware, identity theft, phishing and spam. Other computer researchers said that R.B.N.’s role is ambiguous at best. “We are simply seeing the attacks coming from known hosting services,” said Paul Ferguson, an advanced threat researcher at Trend Micro, an Internet security company based in Cupertino, Calif. A Russian government spokesman said that it was possible that individuals in Russia or elsewhere had taken it upon themselves to start the attacks.
“I cannot exclude this possibility,” Yevgeniy Khorishko, a spokesman for the Russian Embassy in Washington, said. “There are people who don’t agree with something and they try to express themselves. You have people like this in your country.”
“Jumping to conclusions is premature,” said Mr. Evron, who founded the Israeli Computer Emergency Response Team.
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Kindle: Amazon’s New Wireless Reading Device
August 19, 2008
Introducing Kindle™Three years ago, we set out to design and build an entirely new class of device—a convenient, portable reading device with the ability to wirelessly download books, blogs, magazines, and newspapers. The result is Amazon Kindle. We designed Kindle to provide an exceptional reading experience. Thanks to electronic paper, a revolutionary new display technology, reading Kindle’s screen is as sharp and natural as reading ink on paper—and nothing like the strain and glare of a computer screen. Kindle is also easy on the fingertips. It never becomes hot and is designed for ambidextrous use so both “lefties” and “righties” can read comfortably at any angle for long periods of time. We wanted Kindle to be completely mobile and simple to use for everyone, so we made it wireless. No PC and no syncing needed. Using the same 3G network as advanced cell phones, we deliver your content using our own wireless delivery system, Amazon Whispernet. Unlike WiFi, you’ll never need to locate a hotspot. There are no confusing service plans, yearly contracts, or monthly wireless bills—we take care of the hassles so you can just read. With Whispernet, you can be anywhere, think of a book, and get it in one minute. Similarly, your content automatically comes to you, wherever you are. Newspaper subscriptions are delivered wirelessly each morning. Most magazines arrive before they hit newsstands. Haven’t read the book for tomorrow night’s book club? Get it in a minute. Finished your book in the airport? Download the sequel while you board the plane. Whether you’re in the mood for something serious or hilarious, lighthearted or studious, Kindle delivers your spontaneous reading choices on demand. And because we know you can’t judge a book by its cover, Kindle lets you download and read the beginning of books for free. This way, you can try it out—if you like it, simply buy and download with 1-Click, right from your Kindle, and continue reading. Want to try a newspaper as well? All newspaper subscriptions start with a risk-free two-week trial. Kindle’s paperback size and expandable memory let you travel light with your library. With the freedom to download what you want, when you want, we hope you’ll never again find yourself stuck without a great read. We’re very proud to introduce Amazon Kindle and we hope you like it as much as we do. - The Amazon Kindle Team |
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Phelps wins 8th gold medal; breaks tie with Spitz
August 18, 2008
By PAUL NEWBERRY, AP National WriterSun Aug 17, 10:27 AM ET

United States' Michael Phelps celebrates after winning his 8th gold medal after the men's ...
Michael Phelps locked arms with his three teammates, as though they were in a football huddle calling a play, then hugged each one of them. It took a team to make him the grandest of Olympic champions. And one last big push from Phelps himself.
Going hard right to the end of a mesmerizing nine days in Beijing, Phelps helped the Americans come from behind Sunday in a race they’ve never lost at the Olympics, cheering from the deck as Jason Lezak brought it home for a world record in the 400-meter medley relay. It was Phelps’ history-making eighth gold medal of these games.
“Everything was accomplished,” he said. “I will have the medals forever.”
Phelps sure did his part to win No. 8, eclipsing Mark Spitz’s seven-gold performance at the 1972 Munich Games.
Aaron Peirsol got the Americans off to the lead in the backstroke, but Brendan Hansen — a major disappointment in this Olympic year — slowed them down with only the third-fastest breaststroke leg.
By the time Phelps dived in for the butterfly, the U.S. was trailing Australia and Japan.
That’s when he really went to work.
With his long arms whirling across the water like propellers, Phelps caught the two guys ahead of him on the return lap and passed off to Lezak a lead of less than a second for the freestyle. The Australians countered with former world record-holder Eamon Sullivan as their anchor.
“I was thinking not to blow the lead,” Lezak said. “I was really nervous.”
Sullivan tried to chase down Lezak and appeared to be gaining as they came to the wall, but Lezak finished in 3 minutes, 29.34 seconds — Phelps’ seventh world record in his personal Great Haul of China.
The Aussies took silver in 3:30.04, also under the old world record of 3:30.68 set by the U.S. in Athens four years ago, while Japan held on for the bronze.
Phelps leaned over the blocks, looking to make sure Lezak touched first. Assured the Americans had won, he thrust both index fingers in the air, pumped his right arm and let out a scream. Peirsol also yelled and slapped Phelps in the chest.
Spitz’s iconic performance was surpassed by a swimmer fitting of this generation: a 23-year-old from Baltimore who loves hip-hop music, texting with his buddies and wearing his cap backward.
“I don’t even know what to feel right now,” Phelps said. “There’s so much emotion going through my head and so much excitement. I kind of just want to see my mom.”
Debbie Phelps was sitting in the stands at the Water Cube, tears streaming down her cheeks, her two daughters by her side. After getting his gold, Phelps quickly found his family, climbing through a horde of photographers to give all three a kiss.
Mom put her arm around his neck and gave him a little extra hug.
Her son sure earned it.
“The Beijing Olympics has witnessed the greatest Olympian of all time — Michael Phelps of the USA,” the announcer said as Phelps posed with his teammates.
The Americans still had to wait a couple of tantalizing minutes for the official results to be posted. Finally, it flashed on the board.
World record.
Gold medal No. 8.
“Nothing is impossible,” Phelps said. “With so many people saying it couldn’t be done, all it takes is an imagination, and that’s something I learned and something that helped me.”
Phelps, who won three relays in Beijing along with five individual races, gave a shout-out to all his teammates for helping him take down Spitz.
“Without the help of my teammates this isn’t possible,” he said. “I was able to be a part of three relays and we were able to put up a solid team effort and we came together as one unit.
“For the three Olympics I’ve been a part of, this is by far the closest men’s team that we’ve ever had. I didn’t know everybody coming into this Olympics, but I feel going out I know every single person very well. The team that we had is the difference.”
Phelps set seven world records and one Olympic record, doing a personal best time in every event.
“It can’t be described. We’ll never, ever see it again,” said Australian distance king Grant Hackett, who came up short in his bid to win a third straight 1,500 freestyle title.
Beforehand, Hackett figured Phelps was likely to win six golds, just as he did in Athens four years ago when the first attempt to beat Spitz’s record came up just short.
“Everything lined up for him incredibly,” Hackett said. “He’s a nice guy, a good bloke, and the last few years I’ve never seen him change.”
Back in Baltimore, some 10,000 fans hung around after an NFL preseason game to watch the relay on the stadium’s big screen.
“I think he’s going to be a legend forever,” Ravens fan Ann Williams said.
Phelps won some races by ridiculously large margins, others with the closest of finishes — most memorably, his seventh gold by one-hundredth of a second over Serbia’s Milorad Cavic in the 100 fly. Along the way, he became the winningest Olympian ever and left China with 14 career golds — five more than anyone else with at least one more Olympics to go.
“It’s been nothing but an upwards roller-coaster and it’s been nothing but fun,” Phelps said.
Ditto for Dara Torres, who capped her improbable comeback with two more silver medals, missing gold by one hundredth of a second in the 50 freestyle.
The 41-year-old Torres, a five-time Olympian and the oldest American swimmer ever, also anchored the American women to a runner-up finish in the 400 medley relay. She got silver in all three of her races in Beijing, giving her 12 medals in a remarkable career that began at the 1984 Los Angeles Games — a year before Phelps was even born.
Surely this is the end.
Then again, never count Torres out — she’ll only be 45 for the London Games.
“I go home extremely thrilled,” said Torres, who also made sure to mention her ailing coach.
Michael Lohberg is battling a rare, potentially fatal blood disease and couldn’t travel to Beijing.
“I wouldn’t be here without Michael,” Torres said.
Germany’s Britta Steffen nipped Torres at the wall to complete a sweep of the women’s sprint events in Beijing. The middle-aged American smiled, her head dropping back, when she saw a time of 24.07 — just behind Steffen’s winning effort of 24.06. The German added to her gold in the 100 free.
Torres received her silver, then hustled back to the locker room to grab her cap and a pair of old-fashioned goggles that were probably older than some of her teammates. She was trailing as she took the anchor leg and couldn’t catch Libby Trickett on a frantic sprint to the wall, with China claiming the bronze.
Still, not bad considering she had retired a second time after the 2000 Sydney Games, then got the urge to compete again after having her first child two years ago. Not content swimming in the old-timers’ division, she set out to prove that age is only a number.
Consider that point made.
Torres got off to a good start in the 50 and appeared to be leading midway through the race, a frenetic sprint from one end of the pool to the other.
As they came to the wall, Torres and Steffen were stroke for stroke. The German reached out with her left hand and Torres stretched with her right. Steffen’s fingertip got there first.
Completing a race for all ages, 16-year-old Australian Cate Campbell earned the bronze in 24.17.
Australia’s relay women — Emily Seebohm, Leisel Jones, Jess Schipper and Libby Trickett — took the gold with a world record of 3:52.69. The Americans claimed silver with the second-fastest time in history, 3:53.30, while China took the bronze.
Torres was joined on the U.S. team by Natalie Coughlin, Rebecca Soni and Christine Magnuson. Coughlin received her sixth medal of the games, giving her 11 in her career.
Hackett failed to become the first man to win the same event at three straight Olympics.
The Aussie was upset in swimming’s version of the mile by Ous Mellouli, who won Tunisia’s first Olympic gold at the pool in 14:40.84.
“It’s like 90 yards of a touchdown. It was so close, but I didn’t have much of a response,” Hackett said. “It’s disappointing I didn’t win. I have no regrets, it certainly was a close race.”
Mellouli held off Hackett in the closing meters of the grueling race, swimming’s version of the mile. Hackett earned the silver in 14:41.53, well off his 7-year-old world record of 14:34.56.
“He’s never hung on like that in the past,” Hackett said of the winner. “He was the better competitor.”
Mellouli, who trains in Southern California, was coming off a suspension after testing positive for amphetamines.
Ryan Cochrane of Canada took the bronze in 14:42.69.
After receiving his eighth gold, Phelps received another award from FINA, the sport’s governing body, as the best swimmer of the meet.
Make it the best ever.



